NBA Knockout Pool Picks: Week 1 (2026-27)

Opening week is here, and the first survivor decision of the season is the one that quietly matters most: the team you burn in Week 1 is a team you don't have in March. The widest lines on the board belong to the Toronto Raptors (-8.5) at home against Chicago, the Houston Rockets (-8.5) at home against Dallas, and the Oklahoma City Thunder (-7.5) at home against Denver. Those three are the market's clearest favorites this week, and they're the games to build around.

Remember how this works: a pick is one team in one specific game, not a team for the whole week. Every club plays multiple times, so the job is picking the right game — the one with the fattest spread, ideally at home and off a rest advantage. New to the format? The free NBA knockout pool and the how survivor pools work page cover the basics.

The biggest favorites in Week 1

Every one of these favorites is at home — a small point in their favor, since the betting line already bakes that in.

The safest picks this week

Toronto Raptors vs. Chicago (-8.5)

The co-widest line on the board, at home. Toronto hosting Chicago on Oct. 21 is the single most-favored game available, and the Raptors have no back-to-back baggage listed for the week. If you want to start the season on the market's strongest signal, this is it.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas (-8.5)

The other 8.5. Houston hosts Dallas at home, and the spread puts them on equal footing with Toronto as the market's top pick. One wrinkle to note: Houston carries a back-to-back this week, but their favored game against Dallas is the opener, not the tail end — so the fatigue factor doesn't apply to the game you'd actually pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver (-7.5)

A step down from the 8.5s but still a comfortable number, at home, with no back-to-back on OKC's ledger. If you'd rather save a Raptors or Rockets for later, the Thunder are the logical third option.

A tempting name the line doesn't back

Be careful with the San Antonio Spurs. They show up twice as favorites — a 7.5 over Houston and a 2.5 over OKC — which can read like a team you can lean on. But one of those two games is only a field-goal spread, and the Spurs carry a back-to-back this week. The 7.5 game is the one worth considering; the 2.5 is a coin-flip by the market's own math, exactly the kind of game that ends survivor runs. Don't let the team's name talk you into the wrong game.

Same caution for anything at 1.5 or 2.5 — the Celtics (-1.5), Heat (-1.5), Hornets (-1.5), Jazz (-1.5), Magic (-2.5) and Knicks-at-Boston (-2.5). Those are the thinnest edges on the board. In Week 1 there's no reason to reach for them when 8.5s exist.

Lines are still coming in

More than half of Week 1's 43 games — everything from Oct. 23 onward — have no line posted yet. NBA lines typically land about a day before tip, so games like Dallas at Indiana, the Clippers at OKC, and the Lakers at Utah will firm up as the week unfolds. Don't guess at those. If your pool deadline allows, wait for the number before committing to a later-week game.

The one-and-done reminder

Here's the trade-off that defines survivor: picking Toronto or Houston now means not having them in a later week. If you think a bigger, safer spot is coming for one of these teams down the road, it may be worth starting with the Thunder — or saving your heaviest favorite entirely and taking the strongest remaining 8.5 or 7.5. There's no wrong answer, only the one you can live with when that team isn't on your board in February.

Whatever you decide, you only get to pick one team in one game. Make it count. For more NBA knockout pool picks throughout the season, check back each week — and if you haven't yet, start a free survivor pool before the opener tips off.